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Last login: 13 hours agoLaodan: laodan is a 56 year old guy from Wisconsin, USA.; Likes 1,586 pages, 24 videos, 8 photos • 227 fans • Received 64 reviews; Member since Aug 08, 2005

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Boom in the Doom - iTulip.com Forums: Apr 5, 3:07pm 1 review economics, future, finance
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=26714; Boom in the Doom in ITulip by Fred
I worry about the outcome of the collapse our broken credit system and the de-evolution of a lopsided US economy that is overly dependent on debt and finance. I am even more worried about the political backlash at a time when the Internet has created the most fertile breeding ground in history for sophistry and demagoguery from left to right. A few years into the kind of downturn I expect a lot of bad and discredited ideas may well become fresh, new and promising again, with the usual dreaded outcome. Readers need to get into the habit of challenging not only the beliefs of others but their own beliefs. This is where we can all make a difference: demand precision, respect expertise but always question motives and interests, and know that the truth is a journey not a place, and always be seeking. Lecture over. Today is rebuttal day. So much ideological economics to refute, so little time. Where to start? My two favorites are an article by professional doomer James Howard Kunstler and a u201cmissiveu201d by the prolific and good hearted critic of greedy Wall Street bankers Mike (Mish) Shedlock. Boom in the Doom Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler Are You a Doomer? Most of my postings these last few months concerned the economic and financial fiasco that is today's talk of the media. I make the effort to pluck the daily pearls of sense among some 80 publications. I could not have missed those rare analysises of the coming greatest economic and financial disruption of capitalism since the great Depression? No I could not, for, this disruption will engender a whole new ball game for all of us. But those who follow my postings will have observed that I continued posting about art, about China and India, about alternative energies, about scientific discoveries, about philosophy, about the future Open Society and so on. What I want to say is that I never drowned into doom. On the contrary. I feel that humanity is marching toward its unification through the sharing of a common worldview. This does not imply that we will not experience economic depressions, ecological catastrophes and population falls. It simply means that I don't let myself being overwhelmed by "short termism". In other words I don't believe that an economic depression nor peak oil nor climate change nor any side-effects of modernity, even not societal atomization, will ever eliminate the principle of life. None of those lead to the end of the world. On the contrary they are chances for change. And we all are longing for change is it not? Fred's "Boom in the Doom" is a rational rebuke of some of Mish's thesis and of James Howard Kunstler's doom vision. As he concludes the object of their writings "... does not mean the end of the world. My suggestion to anyone running a site that complains about how screwed up things are start now thinking about constructive solutions." Yep.

WorldChanging: Another World Is Here: The Open Future: Open Source Scenario Plan…: Feb 5, 5:31pm 3 reviews complex-systems, evolution, future
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/004246.html; Open Source Scenario Planning in WorldChanging by Jamais Cascio
... scenarios offer a range of possible outcomes used less as predictions and more as "wind tunnels" for plans. ... Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use. As a result, people around the world could start playing with these scenario elements, re-mixing them in new ways, looking for heretofore unseen connections and surprising combinatorial results. Sharp eyes could seek out and correct underlying problems of logic or fact. Organizations with limited resources and few connections to big thinkers would be able to craft scenario narratives of their own with a planet's worth of ideas at their fingertips. This is what a world of open source scenario planning might look like. Open Source Scenario Planning OtF Core: Open Source Scenario Planning in "Open the Future". WHAT IF? THE ART OF SCENARIO THINKING FOR NONPROFITS FREE 119 pages ebook. The Limits To Scenario Planning in TOD by Big Gav Limits to Growth, The 30-Year Update Whow! This idea is just great. I guess after reading the available material I'll need some time digesting it. I had read "The Limits to Growth" in the seventies and came out of it strongly influenced by this idea, that was new to me at the time, to look at the future as being the outcome of a scenario intertwining the possible evolution of a given number of determinant factors deduced from our understanding of the present. But I had never encountered before this idea of open source scenario planning. So no further comment for the moment only that I will now also have to read the 30 year update to "The Limits to Growth" that came out in 2004.

Each year since 1985: Oct 8, 2007 1:09pm 25 reviews future
http://www.wfs.org/Nov-Dec%20Files/TOPTEN.htm; top 10 forecasts for 2008 and beyond. by the editors of THE FUTURIST
5. The earth is on the verge of a significant extinction event. The twenty-first century could witness a biodiversity collapse 100 to 1,000 times greater than any previous extinction since the dawn of humanity, according to the World Resources Institute. Protecting biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption, overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued sacrifice on the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts contend that incorporating local communities' economic interests into conservation plans will be essential to species protection in the next century. top 10 forecasts for 2008 and beyond. Here above I cited forecast n#5 but the others are as scary. My personal take: + mass extinction of species + peak resources + climate change + poisoning of land, air and water + scientific singularity + redistribution of the world's economic cards among the national participants + the emergence of a worldwide worldview as a necessity to survive the side-effects of modernity. Our future, if by chance humanity escapes civilizational collapse, shall emerge out of a long process of interactions between these 7 factors...

Right Braineds Free Thought Association: Mar 6, 2007 9:27am 1 review capitalism, future, globalization, worldviews
http://rightbrained-fta.blogspot.com/2007/01/fitz-possible-utopian-society-of...; A Possible Utopian Society of the Future via my friend nadimchaudry, in Right Brained by Fitz
After warning against the dangers of blindly following technology in my 2084 post, I am going to argue that the advance of civilization can produce a society that allows for the ultimate fulfillment of human potential and happiness. The ancient Greeks called it Eudaimonic. A Eudaimonic society encourages each citizen to achieve happiness through the striving to fulfill completely his or her potential. The best way to achieve this is by freeing humankind from the necessity of making a living. Humankind (in the industrialized world) is forced into a system where they spend the first 20 years of their life in a holding pattern, waiting to enter society as a producing and consuming member. Current capitalist society which promotes and socializes humans to strive for individual excellence, is built on the premise that by working hard, you will be rewarded with a wealth of material possessions (which one is socialized to desire). Now imagine if humankind could be free of the necessity to make a living. What would one do with oneself? The Greeks (who had shit figured out a long-time ago), strived for excellence of mind, body, and community (the city-state). Of course having a large amount of slave labor freed them from the necessities of making a living. And it is in Greek society that we see the intellectual birth of Western philosophy, mathematics, astronomy, etc... A Possible Utopian Society of the Future
Great post and interesting comments. I fully agree with Fitz that there is"A growing sense that our current society does not provide the means to make human beings feel happy and fulfilled." and I also invite to follow his "... imagine if all the necessities of life were provided for, not by slave labor, but by mechanized labor (cybernectic, AI, whatever). This would once again free human beings, as with the Greeks before, to pursue a life which best brings out their fullest potential, thus achieving happiness, not through the acquisition of material possessions, but through self-fulfillment." But would man pursue self-fulfillment? As Fitz writes "... without the impetus for material acquisition, will human kind sink into despair and debauchery. Or will it spark a new revolution in arts, science, literature, philosophy, exploration, etc...?" Human reality is fully contained in the worldviews that humans share amongst themselves... (what you think is what you get) so the real question about humanity's future boils down to "divine" the future post-modern worldview... or better to try to decipher, within our present reality, those signs that will shape our future worldview... That's basically what my writing and painting are all about.

www.stockexchangeofvisions.org: Jan 20, 2007 6:13am 1 review future
http://www.stockexchangeofvisions.org/; Stock Exchange of Visions via Sarah Rich / worldchanging; in Stock Exchange of Visions
Since it's founding in 1994, Benetton's Fabrica, located in Treviso, Italy, has been one of the greatest global incubators for young creatives anywhere. I've long admired the inspired work that comes from this select group of under-25 cultural researchers. At the end of last fall, Fabrica did a show at the Centre Pompidou in Paris entitled Les Yeux Ouverts (Open Eyes), an interactive, multi-media exhibit exploring visual communication, global cultural and social change. The exhibition closed in November 2006, a smash-hit viewed by 100,000 visitors in just over one month. Its impact and the positivity of its reception led to the establishment of Stock Exchange of Visions, an online archive of video interviews with artists, scientists, sociologists and futurologists. Stock Exchange of Visions
Interesting and very well built site. I particularly enjoyed to hear Ervin Laszlo's vision about art...

KurzweilAI.net: Nov 13, 2006 12:59pm 1 review science, future
http://www.kurzweilai.net/news/frame.html?main=/news/news_single.html?id%3D6075; Kurzweil's interview via KurzweilAl.net, in Cspan Online
Ray Kurzweil's interview on C-SPAN2 Book TV's monthly "In Depth" show on November 5 is now available online (RealPlayer required). This rare three-hour long interview allowed him to discuss his ideas in depth and take calls from the public. The show profiles his many inventions (starting with a videotape of his 1965 appearance at age 17 on "I've Got A Secret" with Steve Allen). It also covers his career, ideas, and recent books, "The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology" and "Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough To Live Forever." Watch Ray Kurzweil's interview 3 hours on Cspan (need RealPlayer)
Computer intelligence and singularity are two of Kurzweil pet subjects. Kurzweil is without any doubt a technophile.

William Brandon Shanley: The Age of Infinity and the Scarcity Matrix - Thomas P…: Oct 25, 2006 6:32pm 1 review science, future, worldviews
http://www.selvesandothers.org/article15336.html; The Age of Infinity and the Scarcity Matrix in Selves and Others by William Brandon ShanleyWilliamu2019s documentary work has appeared on PBS, A&E, Discovery and CNN. Other projects include the feature length documentary, The Made-for-TV Election with Martin Sheen and the science novel, Lewis Carrollu2019s Lost Quantum Diaries. A paradigm shift is underway, and a bright, bold new post-material, post-scarcity era called The Age of Infinity is rapidly emerging. The Age of Infinity will be characterized by infinite power and potential that mirrors that nature of the universe: quantum computing, unlimited memory, nanotechnology, digital universe, virtual reality, free energy (zero point energy and myriad others), genetic engineering, life extension, AI, elemental transmutation, teleportation, infinite universal-human mind/consciousness u2014 and much, much more. All of these vectors are pointing to infinity. And it will be quite a ride. If only we can make through the next 15-20 years. I am confident that we will. ... We live inside a belief called u201cenergy crisisu201d yet the entire visible universe is energy. We live inside a tiny visual and material brandwidth. Even with scientific instruments to extend our senses we can only detect 4% of what math tells us must exist. We also see the enormous background of energy that remains when all molecular activity is frozen, zero-point energy, wherein one cubic centimeter of "empty space" (quantum vacuum) contains as much as ten to the 94th power grams of energy u2014 more than the energy in the entire visible universe. ...We believe in the limitations of the human mind and creativity, yet the brain is capable of a greater number of associations than the number of atoms in the universe (Huston Smith, Forgotten Truth). Moreover, we now have strong evidence that the universe, of which we are a part, is an interconnected mind. As such, we would have full access to all that is. URL: The Age of Infinity and the Scarcity Matrix
Much of what William Brandon Shanley writes derives from the facts. I do not question his premises but I certainly question his conclusions. Because something is out there does in no way guarantee that humanity shall have access to it. The principle of reality could indeed have wiped humanity from the earth well before...

Asia Times Online :: Central Asian News - THE EMERGING RUSSIAN GIANT, Part 2 Was…: Oct 25, 2006 6:08pm 1 review politics, future, energy, geo-politics
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HJ26Ag01.html; THE EMERGING RUSSIAN GIANT in Asia Times by F William Engdahl author of the book A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order, Pluto Press Ltd. He has completed a soon-to-be published book on genetically modified organisms titled Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Political Agenda Behind GMO. Ironically, the aggressive Washington foreign policy of the era of Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld since 2001 has done more to nurture the one strategic combination in Eurasia most dreaded by Washington political realists such as Henry Kissinger or Zbigniew Brzezinski, namely a strategic military and economic cooperation on a deep, long-term basis between two former Cold War foes, China and President Vladimir Putin's Russia. Today, with little fanfare, the US is building up its influence and military presence in the Middle East despite a general draw-down in its military commitments and expenditures. It is putting huge resources into the periphery countries of the Russian heartland of Eurasia. Why? Oil is a large part of the answer - but oil seen in geopolitical terms. The ultimate game, where the stakes are the highest, is to render permanently impotent the Eurasian land power, Russia, to control its access to the seas and to China - just as Halford Mackinder, "the father of geopolitics", argued. The push for a US nuclear primacy over Russia is the factor in world politics today that has the most potential for bringing the world into a World War III, a nuclear conflagration by miscalculation. The SCO, founded several years ago by Russia and China to bring together select Eurasian countries for common dialogue. Its stated goal initially was to facilitate "cooperation in political affairs, economy and trade, scientific-technical, cultural, and educational spheres as well as in energy". Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad was invited as an honored observer last June, and Iran is being encouraged by Russia and China to join the SCO. Today the SCO remains on the surface a rather amorphous discussion forum. Given a bit more provocation from Washington and NATO, that could change rapidly into the core of a broader Eurasian military and energy alliance to counter-weigh US nuclear primacy. The nightmare of Halford Mackinder would be fulfilled, ironically, largely because of the unilateral and aggressive foreign policy of an overconfident United States. URL: THE EMERGING RUSSIAN GIANT, Part 1. Moscow plays its cards strategically URL: THE EMERGING RUSSIAN GIANT, Part 2. Washington's nightmare
This is an excellent article about geo-political positioning by the powers to be. I suggest, that if you want to understand what awaits us tomorrow, you should read those two articles. It is not as if tomorrow were open to all kinds of possibilities. One central question will confront all powers it is energy... meaning oil in the present technological configuration.

Miracles You’ll See In The Next Fifty Years | MetaFilter: Oct 6, 2006 2:50pm 1 review evolution, futurism, future
http://www.metafilter.com/mefi/55319; In The Next Fifty Years in Meatfilter by MetaMonkey The future always looks just like today, only to the extreme! This is truly the common theme that plagues any set of long range forecasting about humanity. The futurists are always limited by their perspectives, and as broad as they might be, are almost entirely dictated by their immediate environments. URL: In The Next Fifty Years URL: Miracles Youu2019ll See In The Next Fifty Years (Feb, 1950) URL: Some more up-to-date predictions: science URL: invention URL: space URL: travel URL: colonisation URL:immortality URL: water URL: shortage URL:flooding URL: nanotech URL: techno-apocalypse URL: extinction URL: mental health URL: smart machines URL: robots, mind uploading URL: AI URL: Asia ...Sorry I can't give more links...this limit on text is really un-pleasant. Is there really no way to expand the limit to 4000 characters?
Wow! Don't miss the comments on the post by MetaMonkey. They are fun and give a pointed view of how the future is seen by the users of Metafilter

ResearchSEA - Asia Research News: Aug 27, 2006 9:49pm 2 reviews asia, news, future, globalization
http://www.researchsea.com/; News And Research Roundup from Asia Tremendous source of news about all that matters in Asia. via ReasearchBuzz, in Research Asia """ ResearchSEA is a new resource providing both information about research coming out of Asia and pointers to experts in Asia. It's available at http://www.researchsea.com . From the front page, available research is broken up into several topics, including science, medicine, culture, technology, people, and business. """ URL: News And Research Roundup from Asia

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